NHC Doomsayers

[digginfool]

The National Hurricane Center Doomsayers are at it again.  As usual, they put out a terrifying prediction of the upcoming season.  The first collection of clouds immediately had an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.  Today, they're still holding on to the hype by keeping it at a 30% chance just so they can keep it orange.  Their forecast for the system is continued dissipation yet they can't bring themselves to change the color to yellow, which is less than 30%.  Why don't they just come out and say it?  The National Hurricane Center forecast is brought to you by the good folks at State Farm Insurance where they have their Good Hands deep in your pockets.      

[buythisatvstuff]

Could be, but regardless we should all get prepared for the season just in case. Better to be ready and not need it than to be caught off guard and unprepared. I know I'll be getting the essential hurrican supplies together and firing up the generator just in case. Hopefully it won't be needed.

[digginfool]

Could be, but regardless we should all get prepared for the season just in case. Better to be ready and not need it than to be caught off guard and unprepared. I know I'll be getting the essential hurrican supplies together and firing up the generator just in case. Hopefully it won't be needed.

And that's about as obvious as buckling your seatbelt before pulling out of the driveway.    The point is the hype surrounding hurricane season, how far the NHC needs to go before they have truly accurate forecasting ability and how the insurance companies use the hype to justify rate hikes.  For instance, my auto insurance went up 17% 6 months ago and another 18% this month.  That's a 35% increase and the only thing that changed is my car is another year older.  The agent said rates are going up on all lines due to the increase in hurricanes.  Excuse me, but hasn't it been 5 years since our last hurricane?  And, like I said, the first group of clouds this season instantly starts off with an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system; today (which is only three days since the initial forecast) it's less than a 10% chance.  If it sounds like a duck, waddles like a duck and looks like a duck, it's probably a duck and the NHC is being pretty ducky lately.  

[buythisatvstuff]

Home insurance is a scam anyway. They keep raising rates even when nothing happens, then if something does happen they deny  the claims anyway.  Yes they use forcasts to boost rates. Do they control them? I don't know. it doesn't matter either way. Even if there was no forcast for record amounts of storms they would still raise rates (after paying off the appropriate politicians to allow it)

[digginfool]

And today, a mere 4 days after the terrifying news that a clump of clouds had an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, the NHC finally states there's nothing to track in the tropics.  The truth of the matter is most likely there never was but you gotta make your predictions look good!

[trx#9]

Gulf temps are already in the 90's, look out the NHC has it right this year.

[buythisatvstuff]

They make educated guesses, but they're still guesses.

[digginfool]

Gulf temps are already in the 90's, look out the NHC has it right this year.

As opposed to last year when they danced the same schtick?  It's hurricane season and I'm sure eventually they'll get it right with one of their predictions, no less than I'll get it right someday when I say it's June and it's going to rain this afternoon.  I'm just sick of the hype; you know the feigned concerned faces of the newscasters and NHC spokespeople leaning towards you as they preach doom with every clump of clouds.  Call me when the winds hit 60 mph.  That's no worse than a typical summer afternoon thunderstorm.

[AintSkeered]

OK, now I'm really getting worried because I totally agree with you two. It's just like every Gulf beach has or will have oil on it so kill tourism.

[buythisatvstuff]

Gulf temps are already in the 90's, look out the NHC has it right this year.

As opposed to last year when they danced the same schtick?  It's hurricane season and I'm sure eventually they'll get it right with one of their predictions, no less than I'll get it right someday when I say it's June and it's going to rain this afternoon.  I'm just sick of the hype; you know the feigned concerned faces of the newscasters and NHC spokespeople leaning towards you as they preach doom with every clump of clouds.  Call me when the winds hit 60 mph.  That's no worse than a typical summer afternoon thunderstorm.

Perhaps it's not as nefarious as you make it sound. Maybe they're just trying to get everyone ready ? I don't know, just throwing it out there. News stations always put forth the worst because they want everyone watching. They want to be the first ones to break the horrible news and get everyone tuning in. They take these predictions as far as they can. Maybe it's all meant in the best way to get everyone aware and prepared. Of course I could be wrong 

[digginfool]

Yep.  This is really shaking out to be some kind of crazy hurricane season as they promised.  We've had two storms already; both of them almost made severe thunderstorm status.   

[digginfool]

WOW!!!  Another tropical storm this season that lasted an entire 12 hours!!!  WHO ARE THESE ASSWIPES???  WHO'S PAYING THEM TO SPOUT THIS CRAP???  As a former pilot, I became a fan of the National Weather Service website (you have to be if you want to survive in a 3000 lb airplane).  It is amazing to me how quick they've come to name a thunderstorm a tropical depression or tropical storm.  Christ, they have bigger supercells in Oklahoma than the last two tropical storms this year.  Can you say 'agenda'?

[patches206]

  The peak in Mid Sept and historically the up tick is in Mid August.   The weather men are like us off roaders   when we get on a quad,  they just get excited at the sign of any action out over the water.   

[digginfool]

If you've followed the NWS for as long as I have, you can definitely see the change.  For instance, this latest storm Colin was classified in this fashion (and I paraphrase but this is actually pretty close); 'satellite imagery suggests a closed loop of circulation so we are going to go ahead and give tropical depression 4 a name.'  That was yesterday morning.  By the 8 o'clock advisary, it was a remnant low with no evidence of circulation.  They're just trying to run through the alphabet as quickly as they can so they can claim better forecasting skills.

[patches206]

   They also hype it to get people to watch to get better ratings.  The danger with this is people get complacent because we rarely get hit.

[digginfool]

And now with TD5, they've got it wrong again although they are holding out hope it hits TS status immediately before it hits shore.  Anybody seeing a pattern here?  They're just running through the alphabet.   

[digginfool]

It's been a whole month since my last post and they've run through six more named storms that managed tropical storm status for an entire 24 hours.  We should be at Danielle at worst but instead we're at Igor.  In addition, only one storm has made it onshore and only one hurricane actually existed.  The other (just like all the other phantom storms) managed hurricane status for an entire 24 hours.  Just wait for your insurance renewals!   

[AintSkeered]

Yep, several weeks ago, I took my 13 y.o. to John Lloyd State Park to go boogey-boarding the day after one of those killer storms had passed. We found the sun shining brightly, no wind and no surf(ankle slappers). But, they'd banned swimming and surfing, nonetheless. Must have been the fear of tsunami. So, surfers wait for storms to generate surf to ride, but, now our girly-man society decides it's too dangerous.